Nikolai Dmitryevich Kondratyev, a statistician, took part in the development of the first five-year plan of the Soviet Union. He analyzed long-term time series and created a theory called a K-cycle. There are several cycles in our civilization, with 40, 80 and 130 years intervals, the start and end of which are marked by specific events.
According to Kondratyev, the triggers of these cycles are inventions that change the image of the world. An invention appears, crystallizes, becomes clear, and then with the support financial capital, and with the spread of the invention, the world is changing.
Ray Kurzweil, inventor, futurist, a prominent expert in artificial intelligence, analyzing technological cycles, has found that these cycles are shorter: the emergence of new inventions and the transformation of the world in shorter time takes place.
The sailing has needed centuries to transform the world, the steam engine for half a century was enough. The computer has undergone a historic change in thirty-two years, the personal computer twenty years, the Internet in twelve years.
According to Kurzweil’s predictions, technological cycles will eventually be reduced to zero, which means that there is no time between revolutionary inventions, continuous bursting into the world, sequentially, and at the same time. He called this phenomenon: Singularity, which in his view, changes history and the evolutionary curve of humanity forever.
Singularity is predicted to occur sometime between 2025 and 2030.
Then a new time begins.
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